Monthly Archives: December 2015

Neopatrimonialism versus Geography

Bloomberg has a book review that claims, yet again, that what prevents African countries from developing is neopatrimonialism.  Neopatrimonialism is a political structure where a network of patron-client relationships turn the political competition for control of the state into a zero-sum game between rival networks who flow the benefits of the state down the network.  It is a pretty typical system, Mexican politics works this way, for example.  The best way to know you are dealing with neopatrimonialism is when it is not what you do but who you know that allows you to provide for your family and advance your career.  To a Western meritocratic society, neopatrimonialism is corrupt.

Neopatrimonialism is not the only or even the greatest determinant for the lack of development in Africa.  I highly recommend Jeffry Herbst’s, States and Power in Africa, for a very insightful analysis of the challenges posed by geography in Africa and the continuities with the pre-colonial past and the legacy of colonialism.  From the pre-colonial past, he determines that Africa has always been sparsely populated and poor due to the generally inhospitable environment in many parts of Africa.  For example, trypanosomiasis in the lowlands of East Africa prevent the domestication and use of horses, as well as being life threatening to humans.  The Sahel with its periods of drought cause crop failures, desiccation of pastures, and induce the usual response of populations to environmental degradation: migration.  However mass migrations are anathema to nation-states.

From the colonial period, the “colonialism on the cheap” left most new states in Africa without a developed infrastructure to project governmental authority into the hinterland.  Combine that with difficult and challenging geographies–for example, large hinterlands–add in multiple ethnicities and religions and you get insurgencies, since the state is unable to extend its monopoly on violence to the hinterlands and exert political control.  Only the settler colonies, where large white minorities settled, do you have the infrastructure to permit state control, such as South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe.

We are finding that fault line wars, wars of identity between rival civilizations, are particularly a problem at the southern margins of Islamic Africa.  There is a low level conflict in Kenya and outright war in the Central African Republic, Nigeria, and Mali.  The division of Sudan was an attempt by the international community to create a more stable configuration, sort of like the carving up of India into India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Russia: A Great Power?

Contrast these two stories: firefighters will be going unpaid in December and Russia rearms.  In documents leaked to the media in the Sverdlovsk region, the ministry responsible for emergency services and civil defense told its employees that they needed to take out pay day loans because the ministry didn’t have money to pay them and that they would be paid in January.  At the same time the Kremlin has ambitious plans to rearm adding submarines, fixed and rotary wing aircraft, air defense missiles, and, more troubling, tanks and self-propelled artillery.  The artillery is troubling, because its main use would be against its neighbors.

The military expenditures are to bring Russia back into great power status, but for how long?  It is not sustainable at current oil prices, since Russia is essentially a petro state.  Iranian oil soon hits the market depressing prices further.  It can’t pay its firefighters.

Historically, the Russian people have demonstrated tremendous fortitude, enduring great privation, for political aims.  Will that trend continue or has consumerism taken hold of the population to create a populist backlash to the authoritarianism of the Putin regime?

UNSC and Syria

Public Access to the text of the resolution to end the Syrian civil war that was approved on December 18 is currently embargoed. Based upon reporting in the Washington Post it is very similar to other types of agreements that are designed to end civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa among other places:

  • Waring parties will negotiate the composition of a transitional government
  • The transitional government will draft a new constitution and hold elections within 18 months
  • The United Nations will foster the talks on a transitional government and observe the implementation of the agreement
  • (Interestingly there is no mention of a DDR program which is usually part of these types of agreements)

This is mostly the diplomatic equivalent of  paper shuffling to look busy. The international community, embodied in the United Nations, is invested in seeing Humpty-Dumpty, that is Syria, put back together again. In reality Syria has already been partitioned.

According to the article (we’ll have to wait for the text from the UN), there are profound disagreements on what the end-state looks like. Is it an acceptance of a partitioned Syria?

  • Russia is invested in seeing Assad remain in power, for reasons detailed previously in this blog. Would they accept a rump state on Mediterranean coast?
  • The Europeans just want to stop the flow of refugees.
  • A Kurdish state is anathema to Turkey. An Iranian proxy on its borders–those darn Persians keep cramping Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman style–is also unacceptable. It is doubtful they would accept the Syrian Alawite rump state on the Med. solution.
  • Israel does not want a third front opened against on the Golan, but they may trust in their capability to deter aggression. Hizbollah or ISIS in possession of the Golan is the worst case scenario.
  • Don’t discount the importance of the sectarian war to the Sunni Arab powers in the region.
  • The United States just wants to defeat ISIS and not have to deploy the Marines to do it.

Where does it leave us? If the UN Security Council can’t even agree on which warring parties in Syria have a seat at the talks on a transitional government, this is doomed to fail. Ultimately, the UN will be back at square one and will have to wait until one of two conditions prevail: (1) all sides are militarily exhausted, (2) they can back a strong horse who appears to be winning. Russia is doing its part to see that option 2 is Assad. The problem is that the U.S. and Europeans are doing their part to see that Kurdish militias are that option 2, since they are the best proxies to use against ISIS. ISIS chose the tactic of international terrorism, taking a page from the PLO’s playbook. This has backfired on them, as it did for al-Qaeda. Now the West is using proxies against them and inadvertently creating a second force who could bid for state.

Syria like Somalia is a failed state. The IGOs want to put it back together again on the abstract principle of inviolability of borders, but population transfers have already occurred and the state has been effectively partitioned. Acceptance of that is the best option, but it will only be reached when the conditions on the ground warrant it.

Most states understand this, since no state has signed up for monitoring or peacekeeping as part of the agreement.

Public Service Announcement

On Fox 2 St. Louis (h/t Drudge), there was report about suspicious activity around the Bagnell Dam.  A tipster notified the Sheriff who notified the FBI.  Readers should be aware that they can reach the United State Coast Guard National Response Center 24 hours a day, 7 days a week at 1-877-24-WATCH to report any suspicious activity or pollution events (like an oil spill) on our nation’s waterways.

Emergencies should always be reported by calling 9-1-1, or if on the water using your VHF-FM radio on Channel 16 (or 9 in some areas) to the USCG station watch stander.  On the radio, risks to life or loss of a vessel are reported with the pro-word “mayday” and urgent safety notices are reported with the pro-word “pan-pan.”

Suspicious activity such as a boat tied up under a bridge, someone photographing a military installation, snooping around a dam, testing security fences, etc. should be reported to the NRC.  Whatever you do, do not notify the USCG by radio, because it is an open channel.  Also, do not intervene.  Let law enforcement do that.  Be safe but vigilant.  Remember that Coast Guardsmen rotate duty stations and are not as familiar with the local operating area as residents.  You may be more likely to become aware of suspicious activity than the USCG.  We all have our part to play in securing the homeland.

ISIS is not the USSR

The Independent features an op-ed recommending that the world offer diplomatic recognition to ISIS.

The rationales for the recommendation are:

  1. the bombing campaign has failed to arrest ISIS’s consolidation of territorial gains
  2. ISIS has a 24-page plan for forming a state (huh?)
  3. ISIS is providing governmental services in the territory it controls
  4. ISIS has a monopoly on force in the territory it controls
  5. diplomatic recognition and inclusion in the Intergovernmental Organizations that constitute the institutional expression of the current liberal order would moderate ISIS as it did for the USSR

First, diplomatic recognition had no causal relationship with moderation of the USSR.  What moderated the international relations of the Soviet Union was the re-emergence of Germany as a continental power, the Second World War, western occupation of Germany, and the creation of NATO.  It had nothing to do with diplomatic recognition.  Internal repression was moderated solely by the demise of Stalin and the fact that by the outbreak of the Second World War, the totalitarian one-party state had been consolidated.

Second, while it is true that ISIS is a proto-state, and the bombing campaign has failed to achieve any meaningful military objective (air power never does by itself), that is no argument for diplomatic recognition that would constrain options for confronting ISIS should it be in the interest of the West or any other actor.

If the international community wanted to defeat ISIS, a Marine Expeditionary Force could do it.  The question becomes, “Now what?” There is no credible replacement to provide government for that territory currently.  For all its neo-Ottoman pretentions, Turkey would not want to incorporate the region, nor would the international community support a resumption of the mandate system in the Middle East even if a suitable great power were willing to take on that responsibility.  Colonialism has ceased to be a viable tool to bring order to ungoverned regions.