Monthly Archives: November 2016

The True purpose of Decapitation

One of the junior analysts over at the Foreign Policy Research Institute has a blog posting about the ineffectiveness of drone strikes on Al Qaeda leadership.  After discussing the killing of a senior Al Qaeda operative in Afghanistan, he goes  on to lament the failure of drone strikes to win the War on Terrorism:

Despite these pronouncements of impending victory, U.S. counterterrorism strategy is inherently flawed.  The U.S. relies on a tactic known as decapitation, which states that eliminating the leaders of an organization will lead to its destruction.

I would submit that the Pentagon or White House can claim victory in any winning engagement with the enemy, no matter how small.  Winning a battle and winning a war are two different things.  Furthermore, decapitation is not the strategy, it is a tactic, one of many being used in the Global War on Terror (GWT).  The U.S. has been in Afghanistan for 15 years to eliminate a hostile regime and build the successor state’s capabilities to the point that the state is able to exert sovereignty over its territory. (Sovereignty defined in the Weberian sense of a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.)

Decapitation is used to disrupt the opposing organization.  It will never lead to the destruction of a decentralized and franchised organization like Al Qaeda.  The temporary disruption caused by drone strikes should not be disparaged, because it fails to win a war singlehandedly.

The GWT is a civilizational conflict that will be generations long.  The defeat of violent salafi groups is not achievable with military methods alone.  Drone strikes are one of many ways to temporarily keep the wolves at bay.  Building the capabilities of states to police their own jihadis is an important tool in the longer term strategy.

 

Special Operators in Mosul

There is a report that the U.S. has stepped up the use of special operators in Mosul.  This is pretty standard in advance of a push to take the city.  Throw a loose cordon around the city.  Use nighttime raids against high value targets to disrupt command and control and demoralize the insurgents by getting them thinking that there is no place to hide.  Then faint on one side of the city and advance in force elsewhere.  It is what we did to take Ramadi from Al Qaeda.  We sent Task Force 145, composed of Delta and SEALs to get the leaders before the Marines went in.

You know you are old when…

There is a whole genre a jokes around the theme: you know you are old when…

One of my favorites has been:

You know you are old when the music you listened to is now called classic rock.

Or another of my favorites:

You know you are old when kids start calling you mister.

The other night, while watching TV, I came up with another:

You know you are old when Target stops marketing to your demographic.

Cheers!

Reflections on the Cubs

The Chicago cubs, after 108 years of futility, won the World Series. As a San Francisco Giants fan since birth, I had no rooting interest in either team. I had considered backing the Cubs, since I consider the designated hitter in the American League an abomination. Every player should be required to play on both offense and defense as a matter of fairness. Plus, Madison Bumgarner, in the tradition of Giants starting pitchers who could hit, like Rick Reuschel and Don “Caveman” Robinson, put on a commercial this year for allowing pitchers to hit. (We’ll leave aside the other Giants tradition of pitchers hopeless at the plate—e.g., Atlee Hammaker.)

I also flirted with the idea that I should root for the Indians, since the great Giant second baseman and now broadcaster Duane Kuiper was an Indian. But it was National Review’s Jonah Goldberg who solidified my choice in rooting for the Indians.  He wrote:

I want the Cubs to lose… for the same reason I wanted the Red Sox to lose in 2004: I like curses. No I don’t mean in the sense of giving someone the evil eye so that they give birth to a duck or anything like that. I like curses because they are romantic, in the anti-Enlightenment sense. They defy the machine thinking of the Scientific Revolution.

[I]f the Curse of the Billy Goat is lifted, a game more attached to superstition than any other I can think of will be somewhat diminished.

Giants fans will recall Aubrey Huff’s “rally thong” as a prime example of baseball’s enduring and endearing superstitions. Therefore the “conservative” position is to root against the Cubs.

Jonah continues:

As a Chestertonian at heart, I like and respect old things. I like it when stuff beats the law of averages for reasons we cannot fathom. The Hayekian in me thinks old things that last often do so for good reasons we just don’t know—and sometimes can’t know.

Unfortunately, we live in an age where we take the razor of reason to every little thing and strain to know the whys of it, as if knowing the why will empower the how.

Jonah is on the right track but fails in the detail. The scientific method can answer the what and the how of a phenomenon, but not the why. I’ll paraphrase Leszek Kolakowski on the enduring nature of myth. Positivism, which is the philosophical ground of the scientific method, is incapable of addressing questions of teleology and providence, hence the necessity of myth to provide meaning to unconditioned experience.

The victory of the Cubs is unfortunately yet another very slight step in the demythologization of society’s institutions. Let us feel happy for the long-suffering Cubs fans, but also lament the diminishment of baseball.