TRT is reporting that Turkish President Erdogan will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on August 9. After Turkey shot down a Russian fighter-bomber and Russia increased support for Kurdish separatists, what accounts for the rush to normalize relations?

In a word: triangulation.

Turkey’s relations with the West are trending in a negative direction. The EU has slow-walking accession talks due to the increasingly authoritarian direction of Turkish state. Concerns over corruption has led the EU to abjure direct cash payments to the Turkish state under the immigration deal in favor of funding relief organizations directly. NATO withdrew Patriot missile batteries from Turkey as the Syrian civil war heated up. And, in the wake of the crackdown following the attempted coup, NATO broached the subject of ejecting Turkey from the alliance should the government cease to be a democracy. The United States for its part has been using the YPG as proxy warriors in the fight against ISIS, yet the YPG has ties to the banned Kurdish separatist group PKK, which is even on the State Department list of terror organizations.

Russia, and before Russia the Soviets, have always wanted to pry Turkey out of alliance with the Western powers, because Turkey controls Black Sea access. Turkey is signaling the threat of a major realignment, if the EU and United States push Turkey and Erdogan and the AKP too far. If there are ministerial level meetings between Turkey and China on greater commercial ties, that would be the signal that a realignment is in the offing and they would sacrifice their customs union with the EU to secure the regime. The broad roundup of political opposition in Turkey makes it that much more likely that Turkey, who currently runs a trade surplus with the EU. The AKPs political power stems from twin pillars of economic prosperity and Islamism. The AKP’s appeal would not be as broad were it to cease delivering prosperity. At that point authoritarian one-party rule is the likely result and Turkey will need new friends.

Given the geostrategic importance of Turkey, the United States and EU need to reset their calculus on the amount of diplomatic leverage they have and acquiesce to Turkish domestic politics. Turkey will not be liberal democratic republic, but rather will trend towards a religiously motivated majoritarianism and possibly a president for life in Erdogan.