Thomas Hobbes described the state of nature as a “warre of all against all.” That describes the war in Syria. Every player has different goals in the conflict. The Syrian government is fighting to survive and reclaim territory. Russia has allied with the Syrian government to maintain basing in the Mediterranean and disrupt the European Union. The United States wants to remove a terrorist stronghold and strangle in the cradle a nascent Islamist revolutionary state, ISIS. Iran wants to create a crescent of influence that includes Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. The Gulf monarchies want to counter Iran’s plans. Turkey wants to avoid the creation of a Kurdish state in Syria and counter Iran.

The United States has used proxies to fight a war on ISIS. The most effective fighting forces have been Kurdish militias. I had not expected Kurdish forces to move outside their ethnic strongholds and take the fight to ISIS, but they have. The ISIS stronghold of Raqqa has been encircled by Kurdish militias, Syrian Democratic Forces (Turkey’s proxy), and Free Syrian Army (another Turkish proxy).

The United States allied with Kurdish forces, because they were the most capable fighting force. The Kurds allied with the United States with the hopes of support for a Kurdish state in the region. Turkey does not want a Kurdish state, fearing the dismantling of eastern Turkey. Turkey invaded Northern Iraq to limit Kurdish control over territory adjacent to Turkey. More recently, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Syria. The United States has repositioned its special operations forces embedded with the Kurds in order to fend off Turkish advances against Kurdish forces.

The US forces are a tripwire force. Attacking Kurds with US embedded forces risks a wider conflict with the US, something Turkey wants to avoid. This is a dangerous brinksmanship, but necessary to keep the pressure on ISIS. Were the Kurds to withdraw forces to fight Turkey, it would delay the defeat of ISIS.

Let’s war game out a scenario. Raqqa falls to a Kurdish and SDF/SFA turkish proxies. Raqqa becomes like a divided Berlin, carved up into zones of control. The US maintains its presence to police ISIS sympathizers and deter the Russian backed Syrian government and Iranian backed militias from attempting to retake eastern Syria. The Kurds take the opportunity to establish a de facto state in eastern Syria and northern Iraq. The tripwire force is now hostage to the Kurds. Does the United States withdraw and start a new war, this time between Kurds, the Syrian government, and Turkey, or does it back a Kurdish state?

Either way, the fall of Raqqa is really just the end of the beginning of the realignment of the Middle East. Humpty Dumpty cannot be put back together again.