Author Archives: golsen@the-noble-polymath.com

Loaning a Loan Word

There is an all-purpose word for chaos, mess, tumult, or commotion in modern Hebrew: balagan. It passed into my everyday vocabulary when I lived in Israel. For example, my wife and I use it to describe the state of the household after the grandparents have visited and spun up the kids. The word just rolls off the tongue: ba-la-gan. I have caught myself using the word even with people who don’t speak Hebrew, much to their confusion.

Today, I was surprised to see it used in the headline of an AP story in Yahoo! News.  The story is about how the Israeli security establishment views the latest developments in the Syrian Civil War.  Does the use of the word in a headline portend  the passing of the word into English as a loan word?

The word itself is not originally Hebrew.  This article from Haaretz describes the travels of this wonderful word.   It passed into modern Hebrew via Russian to describe the temporary dwellings used by traveling puppet shows. The word’s origin is actually in Persian, meaning a yurt. Passing into English would make it a loan of a loan of a loan word. The word will have changed hands more times than a sub-prime mortgage in 2007.

Forsaking the Wall Street Journal Review section and John Batchelor Show

It is with a heavy heart that I must forsake the Saturday pleasure of reading the Review section from the Wall Street Journal and listening to the John Batchelor Show on podcast. It is not that they have been corrupting my politics, I’ve been a conservative by temperament since at least high school when I discovered that I had greater appreciation the Hamiltonian side of the Jefferson-Hamilton debates. Rather it is that they have been feeding my bibliomania.

Bibliomania is a psychological disorder first described by Reverend Thomas Frognall Dibdin in 1809. It is that malady that affects men (and it is almost always men) who are unable to pass a book monger without buying another book. There are several problems that arise when one suffers from bibliomania. One is the continual lack of bookshelf space. This adds to another: complaints from the spouse on the clutter of volumes in the house. It can do tremendous damage to the household finances as well. The greatest issue with bibliomania is that the bibliomaniac reads at an arithmetic rate while the volumes accumulate at a geometric rate.

It used to be that book stores were the great enabler of bibliomania. Particular offenders were Chaucer’s in Santa Barbara, Printer’s Inc. in Palo Alto (RIP), Holmes Books in Oakland (RIP). While Chaucer’s is still in business, Darwinian competition from the Internet has replaced book stores with Amazon.com and Books-a-million.com. Furthermore, unless you lived in a great international city like New York, London, or Amsterdam, it was difficult to find a concentration of specialty and antiquarian book vendors. The Internet and the dreaded addall.com search aggregator has opened up the world of specialty book vendors to my bibliomania. I can now find and acquire a copy of Paul Karge’s Raphaim from the late 19th century from a book seller in Amsterdam, and a long out of print volume on epee fencing from Berlin, from the comfort of my living room.

I am inquisitive my nature and am prone towards studying a subject monomaniacally for a period before moving on to another field to study. Walking my book-lined walls is evidence of this. Here are the 40 volumes of Freud, Jung, and Adler. There are the 60 volumes on the Deuteronomistic History (Joshua-2 Kings). Here are the collected works of Ray Bradbury. There are the 16 books by 19th and 20th century explores and hunters in Africa. Here is the complete works of Ian Fleming. There are the 50 volumes on Jewish mysticism.

The WSJ Review section is responsible for my longest running monomania to date. I read a lengthy cover essay by the diplomat Charles Hill on the value of the humanities to the practice of grand strategy, which sent me down a multi-year study of grand strategy based on the reading list and supplementary reading for the Brady Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale, and more recently the acquisition of a Masters degree in International Relations at Troy University.

While engaged in a particular monomania, I am likely to be distracted by book reviews for books outside my area of study. Most recently, I bought a copy of Douglas Starr’s The Kill of Little Shepherds: A True Crime Story and the Birth of Forensic Science based on an interview with the author on the John Batchelor Show. When will I read this book about the inspiration for Sherlock Holmes? Maybe I will get around to reading it a decade from now (that whole arithmetic-geometric rate problem again). Therefore, it has come time to cut ties with the book reviews.

AKP and GM Competing Theologies

The always iconoclastic Edward Luttwak had an article in Foreign Policy on the Gulen Movement (GM) coup in Turkey. He cites the reason for the failure of the alliance between the AKP and the GM is competing visions of Islam and Islamism.

In 2013 the alliance between the AKP and GM was dissolved. Luttwak accurately describes the theological difference between the AKP and GM is over the issue of pluralism. The GM is theologically pluralist. It is willing to accept that the world is not Sunni Muslim: however much the GM is about raising a “Golden Generation” of exemplars to humanity, it is not about coercion.

Luttwak is perceptive in identifying the class differences between the GM and average AKP supporter. The GM is an educated elite, and served to staff the technocracy of the government and military. The AKP’s base of support has always been the lower-classes/peasantry of Anatolia. There was utility in an alliance with the GM when the AKP came to power, because it was a cadre of educated islamists which could form a functional islamist bureaucracy. He writes:

So when Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the 2002 elections, it was able to govern Turkey successfully, remaining in power until now, instead of being forced out or dissolved by military order, as with all previous attempts at forming Islamist governments. It was not Erdogan’s brawlers and provincials who implemented the AKP’s economic policies but rather Gulen’s competent technocrats, achieving good results that dissuaded a military intervention, along with obdurate European pressures in the name of democracy, and the vigilance of disguised Gulenists within the officer corps.

This was doubly true after the secularists were purged from the government and military by the Islamists in the Ergenekon (2008) and Sledgehammer (2010) arrests and trials.

Now that the AKP is fully entrenched in the machineries of government, it is now in the business of purging the heretics of the GM from government, and precipitated a failed coup. Analysis to date has focused on a competition for power between two rival patronage networks. This is the standard explanation of Third World politics, but that is intellectually lazy. Luttwak has gotten to a deeper ideological (theological) understanding. Read the whole thing.

Beware the Fracklog

If Saudi Arabia intentionally crashed the price of oil in order to strangle the infant U.S. fracking industry, it didn’t work. In the world of Nietzsche: that which does not kill us makes us stronger. It spurred innovation and culled marginal players from the industry rather than killing the industry.

It isn’t entirely clear that the U.S. fracking industry was the prime target, Russia, Saudi Arabia’s adversary in Syria, and Iran, Saudi Arabia’s adversary in control of the Persian Gulf, may have also been targets as well.

As detailed in this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, what Saudi Arabia did succeed in doing is destabilizing undercapitalized petro states around the globe like Nigeria and Venezuela. The destruction of offshore production projects may have an effect in the future since they require years to come on line, and supplies may be tight a decade from now, but for now petro states need to beware the fracklog. To quote AE-P:

Worse yet for Opec, consultants Rystad Energy say that 90pc of the 3,900 drilled but uncompleted wells – so-called ‘DUCs’ – are profitable at $50. This implies an overhang of easy supply waiting to hit the market.

If it is true that the majority of the world’s petro states need an oil price above $100/barrel, then political instability is only going to get worse. Imagine the Saudi regime failing or Iran’s perpetual revolution slipping into civil war.

Understanding the Turkish Pivot to Russia

TRT is reporting that Turkish President Erdogan will be meeting with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg on August 9. After Turkey shot down a Russian fighter-bomber and Russia increased support for Kurdish separatists, what accounts for the rush to normalize relations?

In a word: triangulation.

Turkey’s relations with the West are trending in a negative direction. The EU has slow-walking accession talks due to the increasingly authoritarian direction of Turkish state. Concerns over corruption has led the EU to abjure direct cash payments to the Turkish state under the immigration deal in favor of funding relief organizations directly. NATO withdrew Patriot missile batteries from Turkey as the Syrian civil war heated up. And, in the wake of the crackdown following the attempted coup, NATO broached the subject of ejecting Turkey from the alliance should the government cease to be a democracy. The United States for its part has been using the YPG as proxy warriors in the fight against ISIS, yet the YPG has ties to the banned Kurdish separatist group PKK, which is even on the State Department list of terror organizations.

Russia, and before Russia the Soviets, have always wanted to pry Turkey out of alliance with the Western powers, because Turkey controls Black Sea access. Turkey is signaling the threat of a major realignment, if the EU and United States push Turkey and Erdogan and the AKP too far. If there are ministerial level meetings between Turkey and China on greater commercial ties, that would be the signal that a realignment is in the offing and they would sacrifice their customs union with the EU to secure the regime. The broad roundup of political opposition in Turkey makes it that much more likely that Turkey, who currently runs a trade surplus with the EU. The AKPs political power stems from twin pillars of economic prosperity and Islamism. The AKP’s appeal would not be as broad were it to cease delivering prosperity. At that point authoritarian one-party rule is the likely result and Turkey will need new friends.

Given the geostrategic importance of Turkey, the United States and EU need to reset their calculus on the amount of diplomatic leverage they have and acquiesce to Turkish domestic politics. Turkey will not be liberal democratic republic, but rather will trend towards a religiously motivated majoritarianism and possibly a president for life in Erdogan.

Trump and the politics of nostalgia

Donald Trump spoke in western Pennsylvania on the evils of free trade. It is time to dispel the myths in his speech.

The destruction of the U.S. steel industry, and smokestack industry generally is not the result of NAFTA and China’s entry into the WTO.

That those two events and a reduction by 1% off the historical growth rate of annual inflation adjusted GDP is not an indication of causation. For example, also it comes after the stock market crash in April 2000 and American manufacturing had been in decline since 1970.

Trump declares that at the founding of the United States, there wasn’t an income tax, only tariffs on imported goods. Well, at the nation’s founding there wasn’t a welfare state either. Trump wants people to think that foreigners should pay taxes, not Americans. The problem is that Americans pay those taxes in the form of higher prices.

The problem with today’s economy is a severe case of secular stagnation, an idea from the 1930s that has been resurrected by Larry Summers to explain the low growth, high unemployment, low investment, low interest rate environment we find ourselves in. The idea is that savings are high and investment is low, because demand is low (i.e., it is going into savings). Fundamentally it is a failure of demand. It is a function of demography and changes in the amount of capital investment needed to create value. The computer changed the equation. In an industrial world, to build a billion dollar company took tremendous investment in plant and tools. Today, it takes a few computers to build a billion dollar company. Summers cites the example:

Another way to think about it, or a more sort of practical way to think about it, is to think about canonical leading companies, and their cash position. It used to be that the canonical, leading, fast-growing companies in the country needed to go to the bond market in order to expand, and couldn’t make dividends because they had so many investment opportunities. Think about Apple, as dynamic as any company in the economy. What activists are demanding it do is pay dividends and repurchase stock. Think about Google. Similarly awash in cash. That kind of, you can already think about.

My favorite example for thinking about these dynamics is think about two companies. Sony, the company is a strong company. It has factories, it’s got offices, its got tens of thousands of people working for it. It’s worth $18 billion. Now, think about Snapchat. All of it – the machines, the people, everything – could fit in this room quite comfortably. It will … It’s about to be valued by our nation’s capital markets at $19 billion. What’s that say, suggests that when you can start a company for nothing, and with nothing, that you will have the possibility of wealth creation without substantial investment, again, reinforcing an increase of savings over investment.

Tariffs will do nothing to change the dynamics of labor and capital in the developed world. This is not something that can be addressed with protectionist trade barriers. The barriers prevent the flow of deflation around the globe—i.e., the flow from Germany and Japan to the United States, but it does not address the aging of the population and the deflationary impact of technology.

Ham-handed policies like living wage laws, just speeds the replacement of workers with robots, which accelerates the process. It is as if most workers are like the artisans when industrialization happened. What happens now is anyone’s guess. Perhaps we may end up with most people on the dole. We may be at full employment now, even with a large fraction of working aged people not working.

Demonizing China and Mexico will not solve our problem. Both Trump and Clinton are profoundly nostalgic. Trump believes America could become a small mercantile power as it was 200 years ago and Clinton would return us to a mid-twentieth century industrial model. Neither are viable in the twenty first century.

Brexit and Parliamentary Supremacy

Commentary has been voluminous and at times breathless on the results of Brexit referendum and I have little to contribute on the immediate challenges of choosing a new Prime Minister, negotiating withdrawal, keeping The City competitive with Frankfurt, and the risk of Northern Ireland and Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom.

Financial markets are in turmoil.  Because the world economy is so dominated by finance, what happens on Wall Street does affect Main Street.  The turmoil will settle when the outcome of negotiations becomes more certain.  What financial markets hate more than anything else is uncertainty.

It is possible that other states on the continent may hold votes on continued membership.  My guess is that the next states will be Netherlands and Italy.  The vote in the U.K. was not a surprise to me.  Given that the UK was late joining the EC and joined to be part of the customs union (the EC, now EU, is a customs union, not an ordinary free trade area, which means that member states cannot make their own trade agreements with external states).  For Britain, complete surrender of sovereignty in the creation of a European superstate offends Britain’s democratic traditions.

The remain campaign claimed that leave is motivated by a reactionary portion of the electorate that pines for empire.  It is not empire, but the spirit of parliamentary sovereignty.  Britain does not have a separation of powers the way say the United States or Germany structures the government.  That the European Court of Justice is granted by treaty judicial supremacy (some claim that it has arrogated powers beyond its mandate in treaty), makes the EU incompatible with British tradition.

Human Rights versus Maintenance of Order

Ellen Bork of the Foreign Policy Initiative has an essay over at The American Interest in which she rebukes the Obama administration’s lifting of the arms embargo on Vietnam, because there has been insufficient progress on human rights by the Communist government there.

She complains that human rights progress has been a requirement for lifting the arms embargo, citing testimony by the U.S. Ambassador to Congress during his confirmation hearing: “We can’t lift the ban absent significant progress on human rights.”

It is fitting that the essay appeared at The American Interest, since Walter Russell Mead, founding editor, had previously written extensively about the incompatibility between Continental European Realpolitik and American traditions of foreign policy:

The Nixon and Ford administrations represented the zenith of Continental realism’s influence in American foreign policy. International life was seen as a morals-free zone… The United States would support any distasteful regime, bar none, in the interests of strengthening our global posture against the Soviet Union…The Nixon-Kissinger approach also took the moral element out of the U.S.-Soviet rivalry. It was as if the United States and the Soviet Union were two rival great powers like Prussia and Austria, and could rech a detente based on common interests while setting aside their philosophical differences, just as Catholic Austria and Protestant Prussia had done. (Mead 2001, 76)

But this was its zenith. The Carter administration was ideologically unable to continue the Nixon-Kissinger pivot and it settled back into a comfortable moralizing anticommunism centered around the Soviet Union’s “abysmal human rights record and principled opposition to what was interpreted as Soviet aggression in Afghanistan.” (Mead 2001, 76)

What Bork fails to realize and which I have explained in a previous post on Obama’s “realism” is that he is a neoliberal institutionalist (NLI). What distinguishes NLI from previous forms of liberalism, like commercial pacifism (Adam Smith, Kant and its apotheosis in Norman Angell), is that the fundamental principles of realism are accepted: in the absence of a Hobbesian Leviathan, the in international states system is anarchic and a self-help system. What distinguishes NLI from realism, is the role that international institutions can play in removing the issue hierarchy that places the state’s security above all other diplomatic initiatives. Remove existential threats and cooperation among states becomes possible.

Obama is following a policy viz. China’s rise that goes back to the Bush administration (Silove 2016). China’s rise to great power status is inevitable and the United States’ diplomatic task is to manage that rise peacefully and integrate China into the current post-Second World War set of international institutions and liberal order. This, by the way, is extremely ambitious, since historically no reordering of relative power of this magnitude has been without war.

Checking Chinese imperial ambitions and preserving United States maritime hegemony in the Pacific dictates that the United States strengthen the relative power of China’s neighbors in order to raise the cost of Chinese assertion of sovereignty over its neighbors. China must be channelled into acceptance of the status quo instead of behaving as a revisionist power. This is very different from a strategy of containment, it but may be interpreted as such by the Chinese and may provoke armed conflict. This is why the strategy is so risky.

Lifting the embargo makes it possible to do selective arms deals with Vietnam along with Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines to increase their defensive and maritime policing capabilities that raise the cost to China of a significant conflict.

Fighting the cause of human rights is noble, but deterring a major war is more noble.

References

Mead, W. R. (2001) Special Providence. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.

Silove, N. (2016) The Pivot before the Pivot: U.S. Strategy to Preserve the Power Balance in Asia. International Security 40 (4): 45-88.

US signs on to Kigali Principles

Samantha Power, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, announced that the United States was signing on to the Kigali Principles for peace keepers that assigns peace keepers the responsibility to protect (R2P) civilians.  The Kigali Principles were established at an international conference in Kigali, Rwanda, on the role of peace keepers in protecting civilians given the Rwandan Genocide in 1994 and the massacre in Srebrenica in 1995.  The 18 points of the Kigali Principles are for peace keepers are:

  1. To train all of our troops on the protection of civilians prior to their deployment on missions.

  2. To ensure that our sector and contingent-commanders, as well as our nominees for mission leadership positions, have a high level of training and preparedness on peacekeeping operations and, in particular, the protection of civilians.

  3. To be prepared to use force to protect civilians, as necessary and consistent with the mandate.  Such action encompasses making a show of force as a deterrent; inter-positioning our forces between armed actors and civilians; and taking direct military action against armed actors with hostile intent to harm civilians.

  4. Not to stipulate caveats or other restrictions that prevent us from fulfilling our responsibility to protect civilians in accordance with the mandate.

  5. To identify and communicate to the UN any resource and capability gaps that inhibit our ability to protect civilians.

  6. To strive, within our capabilities, to contribute the enabling capabilities (e.g., helicopters) to peacekeeping operations that facilitate improved civilian protection.

  7. To avoid undue delay in protecting civilians, by investing our contingent commander with the authority to use force to protect civilians in urgent situations without the need for further consultations with capital.

  8. Not to hesitate to take action to protect civilians, in accordance with the rules of engagement, in the absence of an effective host government response or demonstrated willingness to carry out its responsibilities to protect civilians.

  9. To demand clarity from the UN and mission leadership on our rules of engagement, including under which circumstances the use of force is appropriate.

  10. To seek to identify, as early as possible, potential threats to civilians and proactively take steps to mitigate such threats and otherwise reduce the vulnerability of the civilian population.

  11. To seek to enhance the arrangements for rapid deployment, including by supporting a full review of the UN’s standby arrangements, exploring a system in which earmarked units from troop and police contributing countries could be placed in readiness in order to ensure rapid troop deployment, and encouraging the utilization of partnerships with regional organizations such as the African Union and its RECs.

  12. To be vigilant in monitoring and reporting any human rights abuses or signs of impending violence in the areas in which our personnel serve.

  13. To take disciplinary action against our own personnel if and when they fail to act to protect civilians when circumstances warrant such action.

  14. To undertake our own review, in parallel to any after-action review, in the event that our personnel are unable to protect civilians, and identify and share key lessons for avoiding such failures in the future.

  15. To holder own personnel to the highest standard of conduct, and to vigorously investigate and, where appropriate, prosecute any incidents of abuse.

  16. To better implement protection of civilians mandates and deliver on our responsibilities, we request better, regular and more extensive consultations on the mandating of peacekeeping missions.  When mandates of peacekeeping missions are under review and may change, it should also be mandatory for the Security Council to consult all troop and police contributing countries deployed to the mission.  We commit to bring our own ideas and solutions to these consultations that can strengthen the implementation of protection of civilians mandates.

  17. To urge the Security Council to ensure that mandates are matched with the requisite resources, and to commit to support a process that addresses the current critical resource gaps in several missions.  We support a more phased mandating process that can ensure a better alignment of resources and mandates.

  18. Noting that any well-planned mandate implementation may be undermined by inefficient mobility, logistics or support; To call for effective support of all military plans, including contingency plans; and to commit to work with the Secretariat to review the current support arrangements, including possible transfer of authority over more of the logistical capability to the military component, where appropriate.

Why this is this important

This is a big deal, because the United States, a Security Council permanent member is supporting these principles.  The United States has always had an uneasy relationship with intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) like the U.N. because it jealously guards its sovereignty and the protection of its troops.  However, at the same time, the principles address the failings that the United States has found in other peacekeeping operations, including: the need to properly train peacekeepers, discipline, giving field commanders more independence from home country, resourcing, logistics, and rapid reaction.  Training and resourcing have always been challenges in peacekeeping.  Peacekeepers are typically equipped with small arms and have nothing heavier than armored personnel carriers.  This limits mobility, when rapid reaction is required and limits the firepower that can be deployed for self-protection.  Helicopters are a pre-requisite for any kind of rapid reaction force.  Having a permanent member on board and with the resources of a great power, more effort in properly training, equipping and supplying peacekeepers is more likely.

Why this is not important

The principles are non-binding.  R2P, depending on how it is defined, can violate fundamentals of the UN Charter such as national sovereignty, sovereign equality, and impartiality. These tend to be stressed by pariah states like Iran, but are legitimate concerns for great powers, since lesser powers use IGOs to tie down great powers.

India and Pakistan, who do a lot of staffing of peacekeeping missions around the world, are not on board with the Kigali Principles.  In particular, the countries do not want to risk their peacekeepers’ lives for others.  Reasons for participation in peacekeeping operations include national prestige, a source of funding, maintenance of military readiness, and the ability to shape the outcomes of conflicts with geopolitical importance.  They are not existential and therefore must carefully guard against the loss and political revolt at home–cf. the precipitous withdrawal from Somalia by the US after the “Blackhawk Down” incident.

Left Wing Anti-Semitism and the Terror Connection

Ian Buruma has an article linked over at Project Syndicate about the recent anti-Semitic incidents in the British Labour Party.  His provides a historical survey to show that contrary to the contention of Labourites, the left wing is not immune to anti-Semitism.  He writes:

This makes it easy to forget that a streak of anti-Semitism has always tainted the left as well. Stalin was of course notorious for persecuting Jews, or “rootless cosmopolitans” as he called them, whom he regarded as natural agents of capitalism and traitors to the Soviet Union. But well before Stalin, Karl Marx himself, although Jewish by birth, set the tone for a vicious type of anti-Semitism that infected the left, especially in France.

It was Marx who wrote, “Money is the jealous God of Israel,” and that Hebrew was “the muse of stock exchange quotations.” Marx was not oblivious to the dangers of anti-Semitism. He simply thought they would go away once the worker’s paradise had been established. In this, he was clearly mistaken.

This can be countered that the Old Left may have been anti-Semitic, but the New Left cannot possibly be.  Except that:

Things began to change in the early 1970s, after the occupation of the West Bank and other Arab territories. Two intifadas later, the Israeli left finally lost its grip, and the right took over. Israel became increasingly associated with the very things leftists had always opposed: colonialism, oppression of a minority, militarism, and chauvinism. For some people, it was perhaps a relief that they could hate Jews again, this time under the guise of high-minded principles.

What Buruma neglects is the connection to international terrorism in the 1970s.

  1. As a way of raising funds, the PLO brought in and trained European Left Wing terrorists. European left wing terrorists even collaborated with the PLO in the highjacking of the Air France jet on 27 June 1976 that diverted the flight to Entebbe, Uganda.
  2. The massacre at the Munich Olympics was a propaganda coup for the PLO. It raised the consciousness of the world to the plight of the Palestinians. Within a few years the PLO had more diplomatic recognition than the Jewish State!

This is all detailed in Bruce Hoffman’s Inside Terrorism, the standard text on the subject.

Labourites may tell themselves that they aren’t anti-Semitic, but only anti-Zionist, but at least certain Labourites, like Ken Livingstone and Naseem Shah, actually are anti-Semites. They may not hate individual Jewish persons but hate Jews in the collective.